Championship Sunday

 

To recap how we've done so far:

Wild Card 

ATS:

Alex - 3-3

Oz - 3-4 (won bonus UNDER Dal/TB)

Straight:

Alex - 5-1

Oz - 5-1

Divisional 

ATS:

Alex - 3-1

Oz - 1-3

Straight:

Alex - 3-1

Oz - 2-2

Totals:

Alex: 6-4 ATS, 8-2 Straight

Oz: 4-7 ATS, 7-3 Straight

____________________________

There are distractions all around. Coaching vacancies to fill, contract questions and futures to be determined for some big names, players tweeting and unfollowing, trade rumors, it must be Championship Sunday. Don't let all the noise take the focus away from these great games that we'll be treated to on Sunday January 29th. There's no Brady, no Lamar, no Allen, but we do have Burrow and Mahomes again! Joe Cool went into Highmark last week and dominated with a patchwork o-line and eliminated the Bills in convincing fashion, 27-10. The Bengals rushed for 172 yards behind a banged-up offensive line and Burrow threw for 242 and two touchdowns while only being sacked once. The Bills offense couldn't get going and looked out of sorts after an early 14-0 hole. 

That was really the only surprise and my only defeat last week. No one expected the Bills to play that uninspired, especially at home and having their teammate Damar Hamlin in the building. The Jaguars played the Chiefs well and had a very costly turnover deep in Chiefs territory late that really turned that game around. Kelce proved to be too much again. Mahomes did suffer a high ankle sprain and missed some time but ultimately came back out and secured the victory for KC, 27-20. The Eagles didn't give the Giants much hope at Lincoln Financial as they jumped out to a 28-0 lead by halftime and they're no Los Angeles Chargers. Philadelphia ran for over 200 yards so Jalen Hurts didn't have to do much with an ailing shoulder and still tossed two touchdowns on 154 yards passing and also ran one in. That three-headed monster in the backfield of Gainwell, Sanders and Scott for the Eagles was too much for Danny Dimes to overcome. Philly's defense sacked Jones 5 times and intercepted him once and he managed only 135 yards passing. Philadelphia was in cruise control for the entire second half on their way to a 38-7 win. 

The highly anticipated rematch from last year's wildcard matchup was a defensive battle that saw San Francisco edge out a 19-12 win. Dallas had some self-inflicted wounds and Dak continued to struggle, turning the ball over twice and setting up the Niners with excellent field position on the first INT and the second INT came late in the 2nd quarter with Dallas driving for the lead. The Cowboys defense played well enough to win but the offense was stagnant for much of the game, especially after losing Tony Pollard to an ankle injury just before halftime. Brock Purdy made some big throws on 3rd down and did not turn the ball over. The rookie 7th rounder, Mr. Irrelevant, continued to shine, despite facing his stiffest test.

The table is set. The teams that we thought would be here, are in fact here, with the exception being the Bills absence. San Francisco hasn't seen the loss column since their defeat to Kansas City in late October. The Eagles cruised through much of the season, Cincy got off to a slow start but has not lost since Week 8 and well, you know, the Chiefs are the Chiefs. KC is making their fifth straight AFC Championship appearance even after losing Tyreek Hill in the offseason, who could win OPOTY for his record-breaking season in South Florida. 

Both home teams are favored on Sunday but not by much. These games are going to be fun to watch for all fans, regardless of how your team fared this season or even last week. The Bengals are riding high and playing with a chip on their shoulder, they've certainly had the Chiefs number winning 5 of their last 6 matchups. Philadelphia has been the most consistent team all season with really only one letdown against a good Commanders team on Monday Night in November. And the team with the longest current win streak at 12, the San Francisco Forty Niners.

San Francisco @ Philadelphia -- PHI - 2.5 

Alex - I'll keep it short and sweet, whoever wins the turnover battle, wins this one. I'm also taking the under 46.5. The difference for me is the linebacker group for San Francisco. I think Jalen is still not 100% and he may get happy feet with Bosa chasing him and DeMeco Ryans will have his defense ready so that Hurts doesn't hurt them with his legs. The Niners also have a phenomenal run defense allowing an average of just 78 yards a game. Purdy does just enough and Hurts and Brown connect but Niners defense makes a few more plays to cover and WIN. 

Oz - When I got to looking at this game, I tried to find trends, common opponents and the like. I've followed the Eagles a bit more than the Niners and to me, they just haven't really passed the "eye-test". Even now, I probably don't give them enough credit for the season that they've had. I checked their strength of schedule, and sure enough, they had the fourth easiest schedule in the NFL. Having said that, want to take a stab at the only NFC team that had an easier one? The Niners. Dead last. 

Defensively, San Francisco is arguably one of, if not the best defense in the NFL, better than the Eagles', but with that being said, their biggest weakness is a mobile quarterback and Jalen Hurts is exactly that. The Niners haven't had a single rusher top 70 yards in 27 straight games. Expect Hurts to change that Sunday. 

While I don't expect the shootout that Hurts and Purdy had when they faced each other in college, I'm going to counter Alex's under 46.5, I will conversely go with the OVER. I'm also taking Philly to WIN and COVER.

Cincinnati @ Kansas City Chiefs -- KC -1

Alex - Can I buy a point here?? No need to, Mahomes ankle is not a problem and the Bengals OL finally catches up to them. This KC defense can get to the QB and they will, unlike Buffalo last week. Carlos Dunlap, Chris Jones, Frank Clark, they all might join the sack party in Arrowhead. Mahomes and Kelce is must-see football, and their backfield tandem of Pacheco and McKinnon plays a huge role. I can't see Mixon and Perine duplicating their effort from last week. The Chiefs secure just their second win in seven games against the Bengals and head to Glendale on February 12th. KC covers and wins.

Oz - My goodness Alex! Get out the pom poms!

While my picks, especially against the spread have been an embarrassment and completely shows my lack of any kind of credibility, did you see what Cincinnati did to the Bills? In Buffalo? With all the drama, atmosphere and yada, yada, yada? I just don't see how anyone can make this Bengal team an underdog anywhere, any time, any place. 

Mahomes comes into this game gimpy, having never beaten Burrow and I don't expect that to change Sunday at Burrowhead...I mean Arrowhead Stadium. Bengals cover and win.

Check back with us next week for our recap and see where we stand.