Super Wildcard Weekend

By Alex & Oz

Welcome to Alex & Oz. 

The postseason has arrived. For a minute, we thought maybe they'd push back the NFL playoffs after a terrifying on-field incident involving Buffalo Bills defensive back Damar Hamlin that resulted in the league canceling the game. But here we are, all but two teams played all 18 games, blockbuster trades were made, the defending champs crumbled, star players went down with injuries and my fantasy team was trash. 

The good news, Hamlin is out of the hospital, we came together as a country, for a week at least, and NFL football seems to have new life and new teams in the playoffs.

Seattle at San Francisco (-9)

Alex - The Seattle Seahawks and Geno Smith snuck into the last playoff spot in the NFC after a GB loss in Week 18 to the surging Lions and their OT win over the Baker Mayfield-led Rams. Yeah, you heard that right. That could very well be his team now. They face the red-hot Niners who are -9 and winners of ten straight. As much as I like his comeback story and it has "30 for 30" written all over it, Smith can't muster up enough magic against the #1 defense in the league to get by Brock Purdy and SF. Walker has a heroic effort but San Fran's weapons are too much.  Niners pull away late. Niners and the points

Oz - I still to this day don't know how the Niners won their division. I mean, sure, the NFC West isn't exactly the powerhouse we'd expect them to be, despite the current NFL Champ LA Rams residing there, but let's face it, if one of them was on your schedule, you penciled in a W. 

The Niners beat Seattle twice this season by a combined 48-20. Each of San Fran's wins came at times that things were going well for them and Seattle was still trying to find their way. 

As they say, it's tough to beat a team three times in a season, and I'll lean on that. Seattle's organizational experience shocks the NFL this weekend and beats the Niners by two. Seattle covers AND wins.

Chargers at Jacksonville (+1.5)

Alex - My favorite matchup this weekend is going down in Jacksonville where the AFC South champs host Herbert and the LA Chargers. Who's golden locks will flow the prettiest on Saturday night in Jacksonville?? LA will be without Mike Williams and this Jaguars squad is playing phenomenal football when it matters most. The run continues, I'm taking Lawrence and the Jags +1.5 at home. Engram continues to shine and Etienne rushes for over 100 yards. Jags cover AND win. 

Oz - I agree, this is a very exciting matchup with two of the up-and-coming quarterbacks of the future. If this game were being played in LA (or even better - San Diego) my money would be whole-heartedly in the Chargers bin, but with the excitement of post-season football returning to Northern Florida for the first time since 2017 and Jags QB Trevor Lawrence - who's done nothing but win since high school - finally planting his NFL roots, the Jags  hold on and win. Jags cover AND win

Miami at Buffalo (-13.5)

Alex - Sunday is equally as entertaining with some more rematches from this season. The early game could be a bloodbath at Orchard Park in the third meeting between the injury-riddled Dolphins and the AFC East champs, the Bills this season. 

The teams split their first two meetings with Buffalo coming from behind in a freaking blizzard in their latest matchup 32-29 on a last-second FG. 

Something tells me this one won't come down to a FG. With Tua still in concussion protocol and Teddy Two Gloves still dealing with a jacked-up finger on his throwing hand, the Fins will go with rookie 7th-round pick Skylar Thompson to make his 3rd career start. I mean if Purdy can, he can right?? 

The Dolphins are 13.5 point dogs and that's generous. Their defense will have to not just force turnovers, but score TWICE to have a chance. Miami will be without Raheem Mostert, who's dealing with a thumb injury. I may be drunk by 12:30pm CST. Give me Miami +13.5 only because Allen likes to throw picks in the red zone and Singletary loves to cough it up. I could be a little delusional, but I love my Fins too much to just throw in the towel. Any given Sunday baby! Miami covers but loses. 

Oz - I give my pal Alex some credit here. Anyone that knows him, completely understands his deep Miami roots. I give him credit for recognizing that the reality of facing the Bills, on the road - and with the whole Hamlin drama - probably doesn't fare well for the 'Fins. I think however that he overlooks that even with a prime Tua starting or even a healthy Bridgewater going out there, Miami would be hard-pressed to hope to cover in these circumstances. Buffalo wins, and by like a lot. If I was pressing a bet on this one, 20 points would be my sweet spot. Buffalo wins AND covers. 

Giants at Minnesota (-3)

Alex - The New York Football Giants travel to Minnesota to take on the NFC North champs, the Vikings. The G-men have been tough to figure out this season, they're about middle of the pack in every statistical category except rushing the football. These teams just played each other on Christmas Eve and it took a Tuckeresque kick from Joseph at the horn to beat the Giants. It should be another close one, but in these situations, I have to lean toward the Vikings. Everyone has been doubting them all season and they just continue to win the close ones. They also have Justin freaking Jefferson. You like that?! Skol -3. Vikings cover AND win. 

Oz - I personally was surprised when the spread came out on this one. Minnesota easily won their division while the Giants didn't exactly crawl their way into the playoffs, but they weren't exactly steamrolling their way in. All that being said, there's going to be upsets in the NFL playoffs and this game is ripe for it. The Vikings topped the Giants 27-24 at home on Christmas Eve, but it took a 61-yard Greg Joeseph field goal as time expired to come away with the victory and skate away with that one. Also for the record, despite having a  13-4 record, the Vikes were a -2 in point differential on the season. Luck runs out Minnesota and their season ends. Giants cover AND win

Baltimore at Cincinnati (-8.5)

Alex - The Sunday Night game is a good ol' AFC North grudge match. The Ravens travel to Paycor to face Joe Cool and the defending AFC Champs. Baltimore will be without Lamar Jackson and they'll have to rely on their defense and Tyler Huntley if they want to advance to the Divisional round. The Bengals have won 8 straight, not counting their game that was canceled on Jan 2nd and that offense is rolling. Cincy is a problem and they don't get enough credit. They control time of possession and are 3rd in the league in 3rd down conversion percentage. Without Lamar, Baltimore doesn't stand a chance. Rule the Jungle -8.5. Cincy covers AND wins 

Oz - Despite the two teams having split their season series, this game to me is the easiest to pick. Cincinnati has been on a roll of late, winning their last eight games -including a thrilling come victory over the Chiefs - and this makes the Bengals possibly the only team this side of Buffalo that nobody wants to play. Especially in Cincinnati. Baltimore on the other hand has been reeling losing 3-of-4. We know Lamar Jackson won't be suiting up for the Ravens (possibly ever again for that matter) and heck, we're not even sure backup Tyler Huntley can go either. That leaves the Ravens outcome in the hands of third-stringer Anthony Brown and that doesn't bide well for Baltimore. Cincinnati runs away with this one in a no-doubter. Cincy covers AND wins 

Dallas at Tampa Bay (+2.5)

Alex -Time to put up or shut up for Dak and the Cowboys against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers on Monday night. Dak is coming off a dreadful performance against the Commanders where he was outplayed by rookie Sam Howell. Prescott completed less than 50% of his passes and threw for only 128 yards in a 26-6 defeat. Mike McCarthy could be coaching for his job. Brady is 7-0 all-time against the Cowboys and if there's anything I've learned in the past 20 or so years, you can never count out the GOAT. All that being said, Dallas should win this game, UNLESS, playoff Lenny shows up and Whirfs and that TB o-line can give Brady enough time against that relentless Cowboys pass rush that's third in the league in sacks with 54. Dallas puts it all together for most of the game and covers -2.5. Dallas covers AND wins.

Oz - In complete contrast to the previous game, Dallas/Tampa is the toughest to pick. I believe, without a doubt, that Dallas is the better team and should win this game, but year after year they find a way to disappoint. Throw a Tom Brady into the equation and it doesn't look good. Alex is spot-on that this is "put up or shut up" time for Dak Prescott. Prescott is 1-3 in the playoffs over his seven-year career and another loss here would put him in the annals of Danny White and Tony Romo - great quarterbacks that couldn't win in the playoffs. That's what $40mil buys you these days. The Cowboys haven't won a road playoff game since 1992. 1992 for crying out loud! I've had three kids and a grandkid born since then! I think none of this bodes well for Cowboy fans. On the other hand, Dallas is 0-7 against Brady in his career, eventually the law of averages comes into play. Right? Tampa was 4-12-1 against the spread this season, the second-worst regular-season ATS of any playoff team in the Super Bowl era. As much as I hate to do it (and this assures the Cowboys of losing) but Dallas wins by six. Oh, and take the under (45.5) : Cowboys cover AND win

Thanks for joining us for what we hope to be something fun and exciting. Check back with us next week to see how we did and get our predictions for the Divisional round.